WTF happened in 2015?

Canada before and after November 4, 2015, in ten charts from official data.

The red line marks November 4, 2015, the day the Trudeau government was sworn in. The shaded area is everything since. Grey bars are the years before.

Canada stopped keeping pace with the United States

+4.2%Canada: growth in output per person, 2015 to 2025
+19.5%United States: growth in output per person, 2015 to 2025

Both lines start at 100 in 2005. In the ten years before 2015 the two countries grew almost in step: Canada 6.3%, the United States 8.0%. Since then they have split.

GDP per person in inflation-adjusted US dollars, indexed so that 2005 = 100. Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, via FRED (Canada, United States).

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Population growth more than tripled

346Kpeople added per year, on average, 2010 to 2015
1.14Mpeople added in the 12 months to July 2024

Most of the surge was temporary residents, mainly students and workers. Their number peaked at 2.98 million in October 2024, or 7.2% of everyone in the country, and has fallen since. Figures are from Statistics Canada's September 2026 revision.

People added to Canada's population in each 12 months ending July 1. Source: Statistics Canada, population estimates (Table 17-10-0009-01).

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Study permits nearly tripled

352Kstudy permit holders, end of 2015
996Kstudy permit holders, end of 2024

The count peaked at 1,037,165 at the end of 2023. Ottawa capped new study permits in January 2024.

International students holding a valid study permit on December 31. Source: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, open data.

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Work permits without a labour market test rose almost fivefold

262Kpermit holders, end of 2015
1.26Mpermit holders, end of 2024

These permits come through the International Mobility Program, which does not ask an employer to show that no Canadian could fill the job. They include permits for recent graduates and for the spouses of students and workers.

International Mobility Program work permit holders on December 31. Source: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, open data.

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Asylum claims rose more than tenfold

16Kasylum claimants in 2015
172Kasylum claimants in 2024

Claims had fallen to about 10,000 in 2013. They climbed after 2016, dropped when the border closed in 2020, then set a new record in each of 2022, 2023 and 2024, before falling to 113,000 in 2025. From 2023 most claims were made at airports and inland offices, not at irregular border crossings.

People who claimed asylum in Canada, by year of claim. Source: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, yearly asylum claim pages for 2011 to 2014 and open data from 2015.

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Violent crime reversed a long decline

70.7Violent Crime Severity Index, 2014
101.4Violent Crime Severity Index, 2024

The index weights each police-reported offence by how serious it is, with 2006 set to 100. It fell for eight years to a low in 2014, was already rising during 2015, and stood 43% higher by 2024 before easing to 97.2 in 2025.

Police-reported Violent Crime Severity Index. Source: Statistics Canada, Uniform Crime Reporting Survey, Table 35-10-0026-01.

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The federal public service grew by 110,000 people

257,034employees, March 2015
367,772employees, March 2024

That is 43% more staff over a period when the population grew by about 15%. The count had been cut from 282,980 in 2010 before the government changed, and it fell back to 357,965 by March 2025.

Active employees in the core public administration and separate agencies on March 31. Source: Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat, federal public service statistics.

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Federal spending nearly doubled

$249Bprogram spending, 2014–15
$490Bprogram spending, 2024–25

This is spending on programs and transfers, before interest on the debt. It peaked at $609 billion in the pandemic year 2020–21. Measured against the economy it rose from 12.5% of GDP to 15.9%.

Program expenses, excluding net actuarial losses, by fiscal year ending March 31. Source: Department of Finance Canada, Fiscal Reference Tables, November 2025.

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Federal debt doubled

$629Bfederal debt, March 2015
$1.27Tfederal debt, March 2025

Measured against the size of the economy, the debt rose from 31.5% of GDP to 41.2%. Yearly interest on it went from $24 billion to $53 billion.

Accumulated deficit at the end of each fiscal year (March 31). Source: Department of Finance Canada, Fiscal Reference Tables, November 2025.

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Interest on the debt more than doubled

$24Bpublic debt charges, 2014–15
$53Bpublic debt charges, 2024–25

Interest costs stayed low until 2021–22 because borrowing was cheap. They rose when interest rates did, on a debt that was by then far larger. At 1.7% of GDP they remain below the 2.4% of 2005–06.

Public debt charges by fiscal year ending March 31. Source: Department of Finance Canada, Fiscal Reference Tables, November 2025.

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How to read these

The red line marks November 4, 2015, the day the Trudeau government was sworn in. Every number comes from the official source linked under its chart, and "See the numbers" lists each year's figure, so you can check them yourself.